Your Grocery Bill Is Not an Accident.

Your grocery bill is lying to you and somebody made that decision. Keith D. Terry names exactly who is paying the tariff tax, why the small business owner is being used as a shock absorber for a trade war they did not start, and why the Federal Reserve says the worst price increases have not even hit yet. Nobody escapes this — not the retiree, not the executive, not the wealthy, and Keith closes with the one conversation every American needs to have before this week is over.

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Transcript

Tariffs Become Personal

Keith D. Terry 0:00

For anyone who runs a business, small, medium, or large, the time for hoping the tariff environment stabilizes before it reaches you is over. Welcome to the podcast, The Next Big Thing. I'm your host, Keith D.Terry, a consultant, a coach, and a serial entrepreneur. The mission here is to teach, inspire.

Shrinkflation At The Checkout

Keith D. Terry 0:20

I was standing in the grocery store about 10 months ago, just a regular Tuesday. You know, I needed coffee, I needed ground beef, bread, and a few other items. Nothing unusual. I got to the register, I looked at the total, and I stood there for a second. Not because I couldn't afford it. I stood there because I remember what the same amount of items cost me a year ago. And that number on the screen in front of me wasn't even close. Coffee was up, beef was up, orange juice is up, bread is up, eggs certainly are up. And the thing that really got me was the packet size. The coffee was smaller, the orange juice containers were smaller, the cereal boxes were smaller, same prices, mind you. Sometimes higher. Less product, more prices. They have a name for that. It's called shrinkflation. Yes, I said it's shrinkflation. I call it something else. I call it the moment the economy stops being a news story and stops being and starts being a personal story. That is what this episode is about. Not trade policy as an abstract, not tariffs as a political debate, the real conversation about why your grocery bills, your rent, your car payment, your lumber, your medication, your beer, your wine, why all of it feels different than it did not that long ago. And what nobody in the mainstream conversation is telling about is where this goes from here. I'm Keith Terry, and this is the next big thing. I want to be clear what kind of conversation we're going to have. This is not a Republican conversation or Democrat conversation. This is not a pro-tariff or an anti-tariff conversation. I do not care what your political affiliations are. I'm not going to spend one second of your time reinforcing your beliefs on those items. This is a real conversation about the real forces that are moving through the American economy right now and touching every single person, regardless of their zip code, their job title, their income level, or their political views. The CEO feels it, the CFO feels it, the manager feels it, the employee feels it. The retiree on fixed income certainly feels it because they're feeling it the most. Nobody is escaping the rising prices. So let's talk about it in a way that actually deserves to be talked about, honestly, clearly, and without a spin. So let me start with what you already know in your body, even if you've not put the words to it yet.

Tariffs Explained Without Spin

Keith D. Terry 2:52

Prices feel different, not just higher, different, unstable, unpredictable. You go to the store, and something that cost you a certain amount three months ago costs you something else today. And the explanation you get from the news is it's either too complicated or too political to actually land. Here is the simple version. A tariff is a tax. That's it. When the United States government places a tariff on goods coming in from other countries, it is charging an import tax on those goods. And here is the part that tends to get lost in the political noise. That tax does not get paid by the foreign country, even though the pundits and the politicians say it does. It gets paid by the American importer, period. The American business, and then it gets passed on to you gradually, partially, and sometimes very, very creatively. According to the Tax Foundation in 2026, the current tariff environment amounts to an average cost of $1,500 per American household. And that's the truth. $1,500, that's not a policy number. That is a kitchen table number, the real money that real families have to come up with that they didn't have to pay a year ago. Now, here's where it gets even more personal than most people realize. Coffee prices have jumped more than 27% in the past year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Coffee beans are almost entirely imported. When you put a tariff on an imported product that has no domestic substitute, the prices go up. Ground beef is up 18%. Orange juice is up 22%. Beef and veal prices are running around 27% than they were a year ago. And in some cases, the three months ago, it was outrageously

Why Prices Rise In Waves

Keith D. Terry 4:51

expensive. Shrinkflation is on, and the shrinkflation I mentioned at the top of the episode, that is not an accident. And it is not the company being sneaky. It is actually a company that is trying to protect you from the full price increase while protecting their own survival. You heard what I said. They're not trying to be sneaky. When a manufacturer cannot absorb the cost, doesn't want to shock you with a full price spike, they give you slightly less product, change their ingredients for the same price. It's financial, it is their financial cushion. But the cushion only lasts so long. The Federal Reserve published research in March of this year, 2026, noting that many retailers absorb tariff costs through most of 2025 to protect to protect customer relationships. But the real price impact is still working its way through the system. In other words, what you felt in the last 10 months is not the whole story. The full pass-through is still coming. And here is the thing I want you to hear clearly. This is not about one party, one president. Global trade has been under pressure for many years. Supply chains broke during the pandemic. A war in Ukraine disrupted grain and energy markets, and now a sweeping tariff policy has layered on top of an already strained system. The pressure is real and it's cumulative. No single economy on Earth, not ours, not China, not the EU, can fully wall itself off from global commerce without paying an enormous price for it. That is not a political opinion. That is an economic reality that's been tested and repeated throughout history. The question is not whether the pressure is real. You already know it's real. You can feel it when you go to the grocery store. The real question is who absorbs it, who passes it on, and who has no choice either way.

Small Business Margins Under Pressure

Keith D. Terry 6:51

I want to talk about the small business owner. Not a metaphor, not a political prop. The actual person who owns a restaurant, a hardware store, a dry cleaner, a medical practice, a bakery, a construction company, the person who woke up one morning and found out that the cost of their supplies, their inventory, their packaging, their raw materials had jumped. Not because they did anything wrong, not because the market changed, but because a policy decision was made in Washington and the invoice arrived on their desk. Here is what the data says about that person right now, that small business owner. According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, 70% reported paying higher costs for goods and services they buy because of tariffs. 70%. And 60% of those same businesses have already raised their prices in response because they had no choice. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta found that small businesses are actually less able to pass through tariff costs than large corporations. Think about what that means. A large corporation can absorb the hit across dozens of product lines, hundreds of suppliers, and billions in revenue. They can negotiate, they can reroute, they can substitute. Most and cores took the tariff hit on aluminum rather than passing it on to consumers. Costco deliberately protected prices on imported staples to maintain customer loyalty. They could afford to do that for a while. Small business owners cannot. The restaurant owner who is paying more for chicken, more for cooking oil, more for aluminum foil, and packaging, that person doesn't have a treasury department. That person has that person has a margin. When the margin disappears and the small business owner is trying to survive, the choices that he or she has is to raise the prices, reduce the quality, reduce the portion, reduce the staff, or close its doors. Now I want to be direct about something, because this is where I have a point of view, and I'm not going to pretend otherwise.

Greed Claims Versus Real Constraints

Keith D. Terry 9:02

There is a narrative that says businesses are greedy that they are using tariffs as an excuse to charge more and pad their profits. And in some cases, especially among large corporations with significant price control power, that's true. A Guardian investigation in 2025 found that some egg producers were maintaining elevated prices even as their fee costs stabilized. You heard it. Prices stayed up when these business owners' prices stabilized. That's a real problem and it deserves the scrutiny that it's getting. But the small business owner is not in that category. The small business owner is caught in the middle of a policy decision they did not make and the market they cannot control. And here is what I believe. It is politically immoral to deploy tariffs at this scale, at this speed, without a clear and honest accounting of what happens to the people in the middle. I just think it's bad. Business owner who has to look a loyal customer in the eye and explain why prices are going up, the employee who gets their hours cut because margins are gone. The neighborhood that loses a business that's been there for 25, 30 years. 80% of all jobs in this country, 80% of all jobs in this country are created by small business. You cannot use small businesses as a shock absorber for a trade war and simultaneously celebrate them as the backbone of the American economy. Let me say that again. You cannot use small businesses as a shock absorber on trade and simultaneously celebrate them as the backbone of the American economy. Those two things cannot be true. And the honest answer to the question of who pays the tariffs, when you trace it all the way down, it is to the consumer and the worker, not the foreign government, not the foreign manufacturer, the person, the person at the register, the person on the payroll. That is where it lands every single time. The only real question is how long the journey takes from the policy announcement to your receipt.

Retirees Executives And Everyone Else

Keith D. Terry 11:15

I said at the top of this episode that nobody escapes this. I want to make good on that because there is a temptation, especially among high-income earners and senior executives, to treat the tariff and the trade conversation as something that happens to other people, to working class families, to people who already are stretched. That's a comfortable story to tell, but it's just simply wrong. The retiree on fixed income is getting hit hardest right now. Their grocery bill is up, their medication costs are up, rent is up, taxes are up, and their savings cannot keep pace with the cumulative increase that's happening year over year, month over month. Retirees have the least ability to absorb the increases in price. Now let's look at the middle manager. The middle manager who has been carefully saving for that new home, that new car, is watching. Check this out. Lumber prices go up, hardware costs go up, construction materials shift underneath them overnight. The American dream is getting more expensive faster than the income is growing. The senior executive sitting on the board, executive can't escape it either. Their portfolio company is absorbing tariff costs right now, whether they know it or not. Their margins are being squeezed. Their pricing conversations are happening in real time. If they're not asking specific questions about tariff exposure in their board meetings, they will be surprised by the answer in the one after that, because the price will hit home. And the wealthy, the truly wealthy, are not immune either. Their investment portfolios exposed to companies navigating this disruption. Their real estate holdings are priced in markets that use imported materials. Their lifestyle is priced in the global economy. They can buffer the pain longer, but they cannot escape the mad.

Bringing Manufacturing Back Takes Time

Keith D. Terry 13:09

Here is the truth that the political conversations on both sides tend to avoid. Bringing manufacturing back to the United States is a legitimate goal. It really is. I believe in American industry. I believe in American workers. But the timeline is measured in years. Some say five to ten years before meaningful domestic production capacity exists in the sectors currently being targeted by tariffs. You heard me. That means that the price instability you're feeling right now is not a short-term transition. It is not a temporary sacrifice before the good times arrive. It is a sustained period of cost pressure that will run through small businesses, corporate margins, household budgets, and career decisions for years. And the people who will be best positioned to navigate that period in their personal finance, in their businesses, in their careers, in their families are the ones who understand what is actually happening and stop waiting for someone to explain it to them in a way that can confirm what they already believe. That is why this conversation matters, not to score a point, but to be prepared. I

Action Steps For Leaders And Families

Keith D. Terry 14:21

want to close with something actionable, not a lecture. Real moves you can make. For anyone who runs a business, small, medium, or large, the time for hoping the tariff environment stabilizes before it reaches you is over. The Federal Reserve research is clear. Pass-throughs is happening now. It is slow, but it certainly isn't finished. You need to know your cost structure at the ingredient level right now. You heard what I said. Understand the pricing structures that these companies are operating in. Not this quarter, this week. So here's the question. Which of your inputs, your ingredients are imported? From where? At what current tariff rate? What does your margin look like if the rate goes up another 10%? If you do not know the answer, that's your assignment. For anyone managing a household, and that's all of us, the single most important thing you can do is stop being surprised. The prices at the grocery store, your car parts, your medication, your home repair is going to reflect tariff costs for the foreseeable future. Budget with the reality rather than against it. And when a product you trust for years suddenly has slightly different ingredients, slightly smaller packaging, and noticeably higher prices, now you know why. That knowledge changes your relationship with the situation from helpless to informed. For anyone in leadership, the conversation about tariffs and trade is no longer something you can delegate to the supply chain team and tune out. The World Economic Forum stated directly in January of this year, January 2026, that the most successful organizations of this decade will be the ones that embed geopolitical and trade awareness into their decision making at its core. Not as a special topic, as a way of thinking. That starts with you asking the right questions. You're not going to have all the answers, but you must ask the right questions. And for everyone else, every single person who feels the frustration of prices that keep rising while explanations stay thin and partisan. The most powerful thing you can do is to demand clarity, not from a political party, from the people who make decisions that land on your receipt. Ask who is being protected and who is absorbing the costs. Those are not radical questions. They are the right ones. Here's what I want you to do before this week is over. Have one conversation about this that you have been avoiding with your spouse about what the household budget actually looks like under sustained price pressure, and with your business partner about which of your costs are tariff exposed and what the plan is. With a friend who is frustrated but doesn't have the framework to understand why they're frustrated. You don't need a policy position. You just need to be willing to say, this is real. This is not going away fast, and we need to be able to talk about it honestly. Quiet, honest, without spin is where real preparation begins. That's all I have for you today. My name is Keith Terry, and I'll see you next time on the Next Big Thing. Thanks

Ratings Reviews And Where To Follow

Keith D. Terry 17:42

for listening to The Next Big Thing. I'm your host, Keith D.Terry. If you've enjoyed this episode and you'd like to support this podcast, please share it with others. Post about it on social media or leave a rating and a review. To catch all the latest from me, you can follow me on my YouTube channel at Keith D.Terry. If you want to recommend a guest, please email me at info at terryperformancegroup.com. This has been produced by your host and Jade Productions.